Executive Summary:
Resource owners planning to participate in PJM’s next Base Residual Auction (BRA) have a hard deadline to meet on December 1, 2026. This is the deadline to submit a Notice of Intent (NOI) to participate in the 2030/2031 BRA. If you miss this date, you cannot participate in the capacity auction and risk losing capacity revenue for that delivery year. The auction itself is scheduled for May 2027.
What to Know About the 2030/2031 BRA
- Return to the Normal Schedule: After several years of compressed auction timelines, PJM returns to its normal schedule for BRAs, starting with the 2030/2031 auction. This restores the three-year-forward timeline, including all incremental auctions for the 2030/2031 Delivery Year.
- Price Collar Set to Expire: The FERC-approved price collar is set to expire with the 2029/2030 BRA in December 2026. Unless the framework is extended, the 2030/2031 BRA will be the first auction in years without a price cap or floor.
- Load Growth Continues: PJM has not yet posted planning parameters for 2030/2031. The most recent parameters for 2029/2030 show a forecast RTO peak load of 171,916 MW, up 3.6% from the prior auction.
What This Means for Resource Owners and Market Participants
- Potential Wider Price Swings: Without the cap and floor, the 2030/2031 BRA could carry more price risk. Capacity costs in future auctions could be significantly higher if additional generation resources do not come online.
- Strong Demand for Supply: Repeated auction shortfalls signal a strong demand for new generation. The 2028/2029 BRA fell 6,831 MW short of PJM’s reliability requirement. For developers and owners of planned generation resources, this presents an opportunity to capture market value through BRA participation.
- Watch for PJM Planning Parameters: Planning parameters will post ahead of the auction, and pending rule changes could shift bidding strategies with little notice. Owners should track FERC and PJM stakeholder developments closely prior to the BRA.
How SYSO Can Help
Navigating a PJM capacity auction is more than just filing an NOI and meeting a deadline. SYSO helps resources in PJM manage market participation. From the December 1 NOI through the auction itself, our team can help you prepare for submission, evaluate your position in the BRA, and track changes to the upcoming auction. With parameters this tight and hard dates approaching, now is the time to get started. Contact us today to make sure your resources are fully ready for the 2030/2031 PJM BRA.